Chapter 31: Future of Théxar
"The planet does not stand still. In a hundred thousand cycles, Kharak will shift 2° north. In a million — a new volcano will be born. In a billion — life will become unrecognizable. We are but an instant in its eyes." — From "Forecasts of the Guild of Scientists," +4 000 E.U.
Related sections: → see [Ch.12, "Geology"], → see [Ch.15, "Climate"], → see [Ch.23, "Cryosphere"]
31.1 Geological Future
| Term | Event | Confidence | Consequences |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 000 cycles | Next Tor-Ven eruption (supervolcano) | High (avg. interval 8 000 cycles) | −1.6°X for 5 cycles |
| 28 000 cycles | Next magnetic reversal | High (avg. 350 000 cycles, already overdue) | Field weakening by 90% for 3 000–5 000 cycles |
| 50 000 cycles | Next glaciation | High | T drop of −2.7°X |
| 100 000 cycles | Kharak shift 2° north | Moderate | Climate change |
| 1 million cycles | New volcanic center in the Irkhen chain | High | Island formation |
31.1.1 Magnetic Reversal
The last reversal was ~28 000 cycles ago. The average interval is 350 000 cycles. The reversal is already "overdue" — possibly the current epoch (Brunhes-Théxar) is one of the longest in the planet's history.
31.2 Evolutionary Future
| Term | Forecast | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| +1 million cycles | Species adaptation to new glaciation | Previous cycles |
| +5 million cycles | Emergence of 1–2 new Thermochromadae families | Average speciation rate |
| +10 million cycles | Possible sapientiation of Moryn | Current intelligence level |
| +100 million cycles | Extinction of ~40% of current species | Background extinction |
31.3 Anthropogenic Influence
31.3.1 Minimal Impact
The Xha'Ruun civilization has minimal impact on the global ecosystem:
| Factor | Level |
|---|---|
| CO₂ emissions | <0.1% of natural flux |
| Land use | 5.8% of land (anthropogenic) |
| Logging | ~725 million sha³/year (0.5% of stock) |
| Waste | 95% recycling |
31.3.2 Forecasts
At the current level of impact, the civilization will not cause climatic changes comparable to natural cycles within the next 10 000 cycles.
31.4 Astrophysical Future
| Term | Event | Effect on Théxar |
|---|---|---|
| +1.5 billion cycles | Khar'Vex luminosity increase by +10% | Surface T +4.4°X |
| +3 billion cycles | Luminosity increase by +25% | Loss of oceans (possible) |
| +6–8 billion cycles | Khar'Vex leaving main sequence | End of habitability |
| +15 billion cycles | Transformation into white dwarf | Théxar — frozen world |
Khar'Vex is an orange dwarf K2V, notable for its longevity. Théxar will remain in the habitable zone for at least 6–8 billion cycles.
Chapter Summary
- Magnetic reversal "overdue" by ~322 000 cycles.
- Next glaciation — in ~50 000 cycles.
- Possible sapientiation of Moryn — in ~10 million cycles.
- Anthropogenic impact — minimal (0.1% emissions).
- Théxar habitability — for another 6–8 billion cycles.